What would count as a scientific discovery by AI?
Follow the question through mathematical proof, protein structures and the choice of the next experiment. The connections matter as much as the individual answers.
Choose an idea to see what it connects to. Each link says how the two are related; the reading takes you further.
What would count as a scientific discovery by AI?
A proposed answer starts the work. A discovery also needs a question that matters, a test suited to the claim, and a result that changes what can be understood or done. Those requirements differ across the sciences.
Connected ideas
asks what counts as proofWhen does a pattern become a proof?↗asks what a model explainsWhat can a protein’s shape tell us?↗asks how to test a proposalWhich observation should come next?↗is judged by what followsWhat becomes possible after the result?↗Read into this question
When does a pattern become a proof?
Checking examples can suggest a mathematical statement. A proof must explain why it holds throughout its stated domain. The step from a convincing pattern to a general argument changes the standard of evidence.
Connected ideas
← asks what counts as proofWhat would count as a scientific discovery by AI?↗has a worked exampleThe next odd number completes the next square↗requires a standard of verificationA test that could change our mind↗Read into this question
What can a protein’s shape tell us?
A predicted structure can help explain molecular interactions and guide further work. A living system also depends on motion, partners and conditions. Confidence in a structure does not settle every claim about biological function.
Connected ideas
← asks what a model explainsWhat would count as a scientific discovery by AI?↗has a concrete research caseA structure prediction tested against structures↗leads to questions for experimentsWhich observation should come next?↗Read into this question
Which observation should come next?
A model can help choose a candidate or an experiment. The observation then feeds back into the search. The useful question is what the next measurement can distinguish, including outcomes that would expose a mistake.
Connected ideas
← asks how to test a proposalWhat would count as a scientific discovery by AI?↗← leads to questions for experimentsWhat can a protein’s shape tell us?↗tests a specific claimA test that could change our mind↗← suggests candidates to testWhat is the search rewarding?↗Read into this question
A test that could change our mind
Verification is specific to the claim. A proof checker tests a formal argument against given rules. Independent data can test a prediction. A physical experiment can reveal behavior missing from a model. Success at one task does not substitute for all the others.
Connected ideas
← requires a standard of verificationWhen does a pattern become a proof?↗← makes the evaluation inspectableA structure prediction tested against structures↗← tests a specific claimWhich observation should come next?↗← depends on an adequate objectiveWhat is the search rewarding?↗Read into this question
What is the search rewarding?
Optimisation improves a score. The score represents a choice about what to reward, and it can leave out something that matters. A stronger search does not repair an inadequate objective by itself.
Connected ideas
suggests candidates to testWhich observation should come next?↗depends on an adequate objectiveA test that could change our mind↗← can change the next objectiveWhat becomes possible after the result?↗Read into this question
The next odd number completes the next square
An n by n square grows into an (n + 1) by (n + 1) square by adding a row and a column. Counting their shared corner once gives 2n + 1 new cells. Starting from one cell, this construction gives 1 + 3 + … + (2n − 1) = n² for every positive integer n.
Connected ideas
← has a worked exampleWhen does a pattern become a proof?↗Read into this question
A structure prediction tested against structures
AlphaFold’s 2021 research paper reports its structure-prediction method and evaluation. It provides a concrete place to examine what was predicted, what was compared, and which questions lie outside that comparison.
Connected ideas
← has a concrete research caseWhat can a protein’s shape tell us?↗makes the evaluation inspectableA test that could change our mind↗Read into this question
- Recognition and context↗
Why the Human Genome Project Missed the Nobel Prize While AlphaFold Did Not
Read the comparison between AlphaFold and the Human Genome Project.
Primary sourceHighly accurate protein structure prediction with AlphaFold (Nature, 2021) ↗
What becomes possible after the result?
A result can make another question tractable, reveal a mechanism, or enable a useful intervention. Asking what follows from a result connects the technical achievement to its scientific consequence.